Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the
Federal Reserve, recently visited Capitol Hill. Bernanke spoke with Congress on
issues related to the economy and monetary policy. Bernanke addressed the two
main risks currently present within the economy. The first being the Euro
economic crisis, and the second being the United States fiscal dilemma. Bernanke urged Congress to
consider actions to address fiscal policy. Bernanke indicated that it is
critical to take action, however, the short term impact of their decisions should
be considered given the current state of the economy. In addition to those
risks Bernanke also discussed the current state of the economy. Bernanke
described slowed growth, and slower than previously anticipated improvement in
unemployment. Congress was also interested in what actions could be taken by
the Federal Reserve to improve the slowed economic growth.
“Easing tools include further
purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and altering the Fed’s
language on the outlook for interest rates, Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee in Washington yesterday. Another option is to use the so-called
discount window for direct lending to banks” (Kearns and Torres, “Bernanke
Outlines Range of Options for Additional Easing”).
Although many tools were discussed
Bernanke never indicated which tools would be used or exactly when these
actions could take place.
“Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told lawmakers
Wednesday it was "certainly possible" that the central bank could
take new steps to support the economic recovery if the jobs market doesn't show
gains” (Crittenden and Peterson, “Bernanke Defends Fed Policies, Remains
Cautious”).
So the underlying question for managers is what tools will
be used and when will these tools be implemented. In an attempt at reading
between the lines many economist believe QE3 is likely to happen. There are
even speculations that QE3 could take place as soon as September.
“The Federal Reserve is on track to release a fresh round of
quantitative easing, according to economists at major banks like Goldman Sachs and Nomura”
(Fontevecchia, “QE3 Is a-Comin”).
The decisions and timing of the Fed have substantial impacts
on businesses. Analyzing the possibilities and weighing available
opportunities/risk is crucial for successful managers. Opportunities such as
cheaper lending could give managers needed access to capital for growth. Decisions
affecting the strength of the dollar can impact imports and exports. Exchange rates can fluctuate substantially following a decision by the Fed, which can
have drastic impacts on global business decisions. Although no manager can know exactly what the
Fed is going to do, analyzing the likely courses of action is necessary to
utilized opportunities or decrease the risk associated with the outcome.
Crittenden, Michael R. and Peterson, Kristina. “Bernanke Defends Fed Policies, Remains Cautious.” WSJ. n.p., 18 July 2012. Web. 19 July 2012.
Fontevecchia, Agustino. “QE3 Is A-Comin'.” Forbes. n.p., 17 July 2012. Web. 19 July 2012.
Kearns, Jeff and Torres Craig. “Bernanke Outlines Range of Options for Additional Easing.” Bloomberg. n.p., 17 July 2012. Web. 19 July 2012.
Link to Forbes article
Link to Bloomberg article
Link to WSJ article
I agree with the fact that it is crucial for managers to way the risks.
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